Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x339d…06da
other · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$66
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)11 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day56.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 13 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 84¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 83¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 72¢ 56¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 76¢ 48¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 49¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 80¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? No 79¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 40m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 57m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 8h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.6% -29.1% 45% 18% -33.2%
≤30d 11 -21.6% -29.1% 45% 18% -33.2%
≤90d 11 -21.6% -29.1% 45% 18% -33.2%
all 11 -21.6% -29.1% 45% 18% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 18% -33.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 9% -39.6%
15% -42.1% 9% -45.5%
20% -47.7% 9% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.08 · official $66.53 (match) · 175 history records