Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
33 0x33a1…2a16 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,514 (+14%) realized +$1,517 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,246
other 30% −$74
crypto 14% +$592
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +16.1% +5.1% 47% 47% +5.6%
≤30d 32 +16.1% +5.1% 47% 47% +5.6%
≤90d 32 +16.1% +5.1% 47% 47% +5.6%
all 32 +16.1% +5.1% 47% 47% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.1% 47% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.0% 38% -4.5%
15% -14.2% 31% -13.8%
20% -22.6% 25% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +36% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$78 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$1,517
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $198 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $209 +$401 +191%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,014 −$162 -8%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $1,008 −$57 -6%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $304 +$85 +28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $98 +$137 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$14 +45%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $2,501 +$491 +20%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $435 −$189 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $326 −$326 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$37 +71%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$162 +280%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $201 +$56 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $999 −$45 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $185 +$722 +390%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1,013 +$710 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $610 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $209 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 89¢ $198 11h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,852 47h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 71¢ $951 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,014 2d
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,008 2d
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $98 2d
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 50¢ $87 2d
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 50¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 2d
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,508 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 31¢ $246 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $435 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.00 · official $47.00 (match) · 91 history records