Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x33a5…3da0 sports 324 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+8%) realized +$55 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%158W / 134L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$13
14 days+$45
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$50
other 1% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +8.7% -1.7% 51% 51% -12.7%
≤30d 292 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 54% -2.8%
≤90d 292 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 54% -2.8%
all 292 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 54% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 54% -2.8%
10% -10.2% 54% -12.1%
15% -18.9% 54% -20.6%
20% -26.9% 54% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses158 / 134
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions32
Markets (closed)292 / 324
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 51¢ 61¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Yes 49¢ 48¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Yes 47¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Yes 55¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Yes 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Yes 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Yes 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Yes 50¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Yes 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Yes 49¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cl Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 15 $2 +$2 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 15 $24 −$23 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. D Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$2 +216%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 +$2 +158%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 14 $2 +$2 +82%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 14 $15 +$11 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs BUY Yes 61¢ $1 46m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 52m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 52m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 53m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 53m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $1 54m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $1 54m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 41¢ $1 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $1 54m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $1 54m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $1 54m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $1 55m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $1 55m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 52¢ $2 59m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY Yes 48¢ $1 59m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $9 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY Yes 47¢ $4 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cl SELL Yes 47¢ $1 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $1 16h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 42¢ $1 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.27 · official $59.27 (match) · 502 history records