Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33a6…a0d5 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$9
world 39% −$4
politics 20% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 0% -10.5%
all 32 +0.7% -8.9% 34% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage306d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $47 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $55 −$4 -7%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $42 +$8 +19%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $37 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? Sep 10 $5 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $51 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $47 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $46 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $46 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $47 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $36 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $11 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $19 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $14 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $33 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $40 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $14 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $26 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $51 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $55 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 208d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 208d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 210d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $4 210d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $4 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.03 · official $51.33 (match) · 150 history records