Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33a6…3895 sports 287 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-5%) realized −$278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%158W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$32
14 days−$51
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$217
other 3% −$58
crypto 0% +$25
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 50% -27.9%
≤30d 61 +5.0% -5.0% 57% 54% -16.3%
≤90d 242 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 47% -13.6%
all 284 -6.2% -15.2% 56% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 48% -13.0%
10% -23.3% 37% -21.4%
15% -30.7% 24% -29.0%
20% -37.5% 14% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses158 / 126
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)284 / 287
History coverage109d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 60¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $19 +$25 +127%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherla Jun 14 $22 +$13 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $22 −$12 -52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$8 +24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$7 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$8 -28%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$18 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $73 +$34 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$7 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$17 -44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $57 −$13 -23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $23 +$4 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +42%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $11 +$5 +44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $9 +$2 +23%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $43 −$8 -19%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $22 +$3 +16%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$3 +15%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $37 +$2 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $39 +$6 +16%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $23 −$23 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$3 +6%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $58 +$14 +25%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $58 −$14 -24%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 31 $27 +$15 +54%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $30 +$7 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $21 +$4 +18%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $12 +$4 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $16 +$6 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $9 +$15 +162%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $15 +$6 +40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $2 +$16 +776%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $28 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 71¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $29 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 79¢ $44 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $19 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 33h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $10 37h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs BUY 33¢ $20 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Swit BUY 21¢ $15 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $35 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherla SELL 77¢ $35 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherla BUY 48¢ $22 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 61¢ $10 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $32 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $20 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 35¢ $22 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $43 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 79¢ $34 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $24 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $17 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $22 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $15 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.33 · official $39.33 (match) · 645 history records