Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33a7…c1cd sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-1%) realized −$137 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate72%26W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$97
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% −$122
economics 14% −$209
crypto 13% +$66
world 13% +$161
sports 12% −$95
politics 11% +$151
finance 8% −$160
tech 6% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +30.0% +17.7% 67% 67% -1.4%
≤90d 17 -14.3% -22.4% 53% 41% -21.5%
all 36 -9.7% -18.3% 72% 25% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 25% -10.2%
10% -26.1% 17% -18.8%
15% -33.3% 14% -26.7%
20% -39.8% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,108) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$143 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses26 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage240d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $67 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$97 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $65 +$68 +104%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $57 +$49 +86%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $11 +$1 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $108 −$106 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $116 −$114 -99%
Wild vs. Stars May 06 $118 +$134 +114%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 28 $121 +$100 +83%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $128 −$127 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 20 $93 +$110 +117%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 12 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 04 $109 −$109 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 04 $1,314 +$53 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $12 +$4 +35%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $1,216 +$135 +11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 07 $1,157 +$66 +6%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $1,076 +$81 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 11 $1,050 +$26 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $332 −$332 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 15 $1,360 +$22 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 07 $1,214 +$49 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $1,206 +$105 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 05 $1,154 +$52 +4%
Jets vs. Patriots Nov 22 $1,108 +$46 +4%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 14 $1,021 +$86 +8%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $939 +$63 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $226 −$226 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,136 +$14 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $43 +$7 +16%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $59 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $1,008 +$18 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $68 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $98 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $65 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 53¢ $57 21d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 49¢ $109 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? BUY No 51¢ $106 38d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $108 43d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 53¢ $116 50d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Wild 46¢ $118 59d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 54¢ $121 63d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? BUY No 61¢ $128 65d
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $8 70d
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $86 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 52¢ $110 75d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 52¢ $56 82d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 52¢ $1 82d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 52¢ $3 82d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 52¢ $1 82d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 52¢ $48 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $1,314 101d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 101d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $12 101d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $20 101d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 90¢ $1,216 110d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,157 122d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY No 93¢ $1,076 134d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,050 141d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $332 158d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY No 98¢ $1,360 169d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $185 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.76 · official $66.76 (match) · 76 history records