Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x33a8…e34e other 45 markets active 19h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$633 (+3%) realized +$672 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%24W / 12L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$312
14 days−$138
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$125
finance 15% +$80
sports 15% −$4
world 10% −$36
politics 8% +$783
tech 1% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -35.7% -41.9% 50% 33% -18.9%
≤30d 26 -9.7% -18.3% 69% 35% -9.9%
≤90d 36 -10.3% -18.8% 67% 39% -6.3%
all 36 -10.3% -18.8% 67% 39% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 39% -6.3%
10% -26.6% 25% -15.2%
15% -33.7% 14% -23.4%
20% -40.2% 11% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$578) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$79 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,831
Realized+$672
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses24 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage102d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $1,000 $971 −$29 (-3%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 92¢ 90¢ $619 $600 −$18 (-3%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $172 $177 +$5 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $12 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Will Puma be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion? No 89¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $151 −$150 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $1,627 +$163 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $593 −$289 -49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$42 -42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,301 +$47 +4%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1,681 +$38 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? Jun 14 $223 +$2 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $500 +$37 +7%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $48 −$42 -88%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $578 +$53 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1,372 +$27 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,661 +$78 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 31 $2,703 +$37 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $160 +$25 +16%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $236 −$31 -13%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 23 $152 −$110 -73%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $271 +$28 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $11 −$9 -84%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 19 $9 +$2 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $7 +$2 +36%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $1,371 +$777 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 21h
Will Puma be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY No 89¢ $10 38h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $292 45h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $148 45h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $9 45h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $623 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $17 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $51 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $191 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $226 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $78 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $456 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $99 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $101 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $88 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,831.39 · official $1,832.10 (match) · 140 history records