Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33a8…2f02 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%22W / 115L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$17
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$17
sports 25% −$16
politics 22% −$7
crypto 9% −$13
world 5% +$3
finance 4% −$6
economics 4% $0
culture 3% −$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 66 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 118 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 137 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses22 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage104d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $303 −$2 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $510 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $239 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 09 $46 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $55 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $63 −$2 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $108 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $98 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $45 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 57m
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 6h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $47 7h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $48 13h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $65 13h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $65 20h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $40 21h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $39 28h
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $50 29h
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $51 37h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $44 37h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $44 42h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $46 43h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $37 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $38 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $60 3d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $61 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $37 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 94¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.80 · official $54.80 (match) · 516 history records