Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x33aa…791b other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+19%) realized +$81 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$109
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$98
sports 23% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.5% -2.8% 50% 50% +14.9%
≤30d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 45% +12.1%
≤90d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 45% +12.1%
all 11 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 45% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 45% +12.1%
10% -20.1% 45% +1.4%
15% -27.8% 45% -8.4%
20% -34.9% 27% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$24 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 74¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$70 +138%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$7 -34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$96 +188%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $121 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 24¢ $13 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $20 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.78 · official $115.78 (match) · 21 history records