Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ab…69b5 crypto 102 markets active 1d ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,405 (-7%) realized −$5,273 · open −$132
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%76W / 21L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$751per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$563
7 days+$565
14 days+$40
30 days−$977
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$2,884
sports 21% +$107
other 14% −$172
politics 10% −$2,311
world 3% −$445
economics 3% +$305
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.5% -19.0% 75% 50% +1.5%
≤30d 32 -16.1% -24.1% 69% 28% -13.0%
≤90d 42 -21.2% -28.7% 67% 21% -19.6%
all 97 -2.4% -11.7% 78% 24% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 24% -16.7%
10% -20.1% 11% -24.7%
15% -27.8% 8% -31.9%
20% -34.9% 5% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$939) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$485 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$4,934
Realized−$5,273
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses76 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions5
Markets (closed)97 / 102
History coverage557d
Avg bet$751
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2,000 $2,133 +$133 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $1,999 $1,802 −$197 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $530 $522 −$8 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $499 $441 −$58 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,604 +$573 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,457 −$526 -8%
Counter-Strike: OG vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Thunderpick Wo May 29 $1,001 +$21 +2%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs May 29 $421 −$285 -68%
Counter-Strike: Endless Journey vs Partizan Esport (BO3) - Exort Serie May 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - United21 Group A May 28 $100 −$87 -87%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta May 27 $1,104 +$124 +11%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 27 $401 +$33 +8%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champions May 27 $1,453 −$380 -26%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $802 +$68 +8%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $788 +$98 +12%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Ser May 27 $22 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe S May 27 $200 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Pitstop crew vs Diamant Esports (BO3) - Exort Series C May 26 $201 +$33 +16%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Atreides (BO3) - European Pro League May 26 $300 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe May 26 $1,079 +$168 +16%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CIS LAN Champions May 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 26 $77 +$4 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $528 −$526 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta May 25 $551 +$25 +4%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs SPARTA (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship G May 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $202 −$110 -55%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 25 $671 +$96 +14%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship May 25 $501 +$170 +34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 21 $2,048 +$43 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 21 $76 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $902 +$64 +7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $1,061 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? May 17 $2,245 −$2,245 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 16 $1,036 +$3 +0%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $262 −$241 -92%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 14 $1,000 +$36 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $255 +$7 +3%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $249 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 05 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 05 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 05 $52 +$45 +86%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $10 +$38 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 04 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 04 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 14 $326 −$206 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 14 $202 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $39 34h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $544 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $513 34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,050 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,049 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $852 43h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $409 43h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $461 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,753 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2,010 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,744 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $10 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $382 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $515 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,051 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,050 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $12 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 16d
Counter-Strike: OG vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Thunderpick Wo SELL OG 100¢ $1,021 18d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs SELL WW Team 27¢ $137 18d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs BUY WW Team 85¢ $201 18d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs BUY WW Team 87¢ $19 18d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs BUY WW Team 80¢ $101 18d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs BUY WW Team 76¢ $101 18d
Counter-Strike: Endless Journey vs Partizan Esport (BO3) - Exort Serie BUY Partizan Esport 98¢ $100 18d
Counter-Strike: Endless Journey vs Partizan Esport (BO3) - Exort Serie BUY Partizan Esport 98¢ $100 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,934.43 · official $4,934.43 (match) · 393 history records