Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ad…36b1 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$29 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$181
14 days+$324
30 days+$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$7
sports 42% +$360
world 4% −$40
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +14.8% +3.9% 37% 37% +10.0%
≤30d 77 +10.1% -0.4% 39% 39% +17.9%
≤90d 77 +10.1% -0.4% 39% 39% +17.9%
all 77 +10.1% -0.4% 39% 39% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 39% +17.9%
10% -9.9% 38% +6.6%
15% -18.6% 36% -3.7%
20% -26.6% 32% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$8 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 98
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$13 +262%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Virgil van Dijk: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $97 +$17 +18%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists Jun 25 $20 +$20 +98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$18 +37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Hwang Heechan: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 25 $5 +$17 +325%
Oh Hyeongyu: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$5 -51%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 +$33 +639%
Breel Embolo: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 +$31 +596%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 +$24 +474%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A Jun 23 $10 +$60 +581%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$7 +146%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $51 +$33 +64%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 +$19 +365%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $15 +$25 +163%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $87 +$67 +77%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $150 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 6h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 22h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 22h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 23h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $5 23h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23h
Virgil van Dijk: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $115 23h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $40 23h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 90¢ $69 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $97 41h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 50¢ $20 41h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $51 41h
Oh Hyeongyu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 44h
Hwang Heechan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $5 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY $10 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2 BUY 53¢ $25 45h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 34¢ $10 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 45h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 18¢ $5 45h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $5 47h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $5 47h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 47¢ $10 47h
Son Heungmin: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 139 history records