Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33b0…a413 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,535 (-21%) realized −$1,532 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$958
7 days−$1,285
14 days−$1,788
30 days−$1,788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,521
other 14% −$203
crypto 5% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -30.6% -37.2% 37% 37% -27.0%
≤30d 35 -32.6% -39.0% 37% 34% -32.1%
≤90d 35 -32.6% -39.0% 37% 34% -32.1%
all 35 -32.6% -39.0% 37% 34% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.0% 34% -32.1%
10% ← realistic here -44.9% 29% -38.6%
15% -50.2% 23% -44.5%
20% -55.1% 20% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$167 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$1,532
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage14d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $251 $248 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $301 −$88 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$1 -7%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $511 −$511 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $255 −$255 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 +$33 +64%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $103 +$97 +94%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $508 +$228 +45%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $205 −$205 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $103 +$53 +52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $312 −$312 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $99 +$33 +33%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $454 +$392 +86%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $294 +$299 +102%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Jun 24 $490 +$153 +31%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $362 −$362 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot Jun 24 $582 +$95 +16%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $264 −$264 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $423 +$379 +90%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $159 −$159 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $62 −$60 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $117 +$125 +106%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $154 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $103 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $214 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $301 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 11h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $511 46h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $255 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 2d
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $103 2d
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) SELL Belgium 99¢ $199 2d
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 50¢ $103 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 56¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 68¢ $172 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.90 · official $249.89 (match) · 361 history records