Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x33b2…38aa crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,447 (+25%) realized +$6,540 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$321est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days+$1,626
14 days+$1,635
30 days+$4,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$6,473
other 30% +$101
politics 19% −$126
tech 3% −$289
crypto 1% +$13
world 1% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.3% -7.4% 62% 38% +8.7%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 29% +15.9%
≤90d 50 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 28% +21.2%
all 50 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 28% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 28% +21.2%
10% -22.0% 22% +9.6%
15% -29.5% 18% -1.0%
20% -36.5% 18% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$365 vs −$99 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2,476
Realized+$6,540
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage87d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,000 $1,044 +$44 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,000 $996 −$4 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $175 −$25 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $169 $131 −$38 (-23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $130 −$70 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $893 −$289 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,132 +$2,135 +100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $4,910 −$126 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,529 +$1,008 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2,238 +$2,879 +129%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $2,327 −$43 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $144 −$141 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +5%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 08 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 08 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $242 +$243 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $89 −$87 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $510 −$118 -23%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $300 −$293 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $327 +$1,061 +324%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $500 +$827 +165%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $64 −$62 -97%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $70 +$94 +134%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $265 +$456 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 05 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 05 $40 +$43 +108%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 27¢ $604 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 37¢ $893 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $4,844 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5,126 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $3,805 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 52¢ $2,029 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 33¢ $462 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $103 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $4,783 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $4,910 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $2,536 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $1,018 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,475.89 · official $2,475.89 (match) · 149 history records