Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

33 0x33b7…17f4 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$66 (+15%) realized +$66 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR83%break-even

Win rate100%6W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +83%

net ROI/market (all)+10.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+22.5%	+10.8%	100%	83%	+9.8%
≤30d	6	+22.5%	+10.8%	100%	83%	+9.8%
≤90d	6	+22.5%	+10.8%	100%	83%	+9.8%
all	6	+22.5%	+10.8%	100%	83%	+9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.8%	83%	+9.8%
10%	+0.2%	33%	-0.7%
15%	-9.5%	17%	-10.3%
20%	-18.3%	0%	-19.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$66

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses6 / 0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 28	$83	+$35	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 28	$31	+$10	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 28	$81	+$7	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 28	$82	+$14	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 28	$82	+$18	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 28	$81	+$9	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$83	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$81	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$82	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$82	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$81	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records