Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

33 0x33bc…37dc other 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠

BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ bot/MM pace (1287 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$4,455 (-3%) realized −$6,467 · open +$2,012

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate68%172W / 82L

Whale WR92%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$604per market

Trades / day1287.2pace

Fees−$758est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$65,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (1287 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+22.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	254	+35.6%	+22.7%	68%	29%	-6.8%
≤30d	254	+35.6%	+22.7%	68%	29%	-6.8%
≤90d	254	+35.6%	+22.7%	68%	29%	-6.8%
all	254	+35.6%	+22.7%	68%	29%	-6.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1287.2 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+22.7%	29%	-6.8%
10%	+11.0%	20%	-15.7%
15% ← realistic here	+0.2%	17%	-23.8%
20%	-9.6%	17%	-31.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

57% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 92% (≥$870) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +18% → late +54% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$130 vs −$214 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.28 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$65,308

Realized−$6,467

Unrealized+$2,012

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses172 / 82

Whale WR (big bets)92%

Est. fees paid−$758

Open positions223

Markets (closed)254 / 294

History coverage2d ⚠

Avg bet$604

Trades / day1287.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 223 History 254 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	No	94¢	95¢	$3,858	$3,893	+$35 (+1%)
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5	Over	87¢	90¢	$2,210	$2,292	+$82 (+4%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	91¢	99¢	$1,830	$1,971	+$141 (+8%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	54¢	58¢	$1,562	$1,685	+$123 (+8%)
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	76¢	88¢	$1,114	$1,289	+$175 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$1,086	$1,181	+$94 (+9%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	74¢	74¢	$1,128	$1,128	+$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	81¢	83¢	$1,011	$1,038	+$28 (+3%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	95¢	99¢	$955	$990	+$36 (+4%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	94¢	95¢	$980	$989	+$9 (+1%)
Will Rodrigo De Paul record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	98¢	99¢	$980	$989	+$9 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	99¢	98¢	$990	$984	−$6 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia?	No	96¢	96¢	$960	$962	+$2 (+0%)
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	95¢	98¢	$888	$917	+$29 (+3%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	30¢	84¢	$300	$845	+$545 (+182%)
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	90¢	92¢	$822	$836	+$14 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	90¢	88¢	$837	$825	−$13 (-2%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	87¢	82¢	$870	$820	−$50 (-6%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	63¢	64¢	$797	$815	+$18 (+2%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	46¢	86¢	$431	$813	+$382 (+89%)
Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon?	No	97¢	99¢	$792	$808	+$17 (+2%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	86¢	78¢	$885	$808	−$77 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	87¢	80¢	$870	$805	−$65 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	95¢	94¢	$808	$800	−$8 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	47¢	38¢	$940	$770	−$170 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco?	Jun 18	$0	+$70	+460709%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Jun 18	$0	$0	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 18	$0	+$16	+91676%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Jun 18	$0	$0	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 18	$0	$0	-100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 18	$0	$0	-100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 18	$0	$0	-100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 18	$0	$0	-100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 18	$0	$0	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 18	$0	$0	-100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$283	+$121	+43%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$53	+$49	+92%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$900	+$100	+11%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners	Jun 18	$61	+$166	+270%
Ghana vs. Panama: Total Corners Odd or Even?	Jun 18	$7	+$7	+104%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 18	$983	+$148	+15%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$154	+$99	+64%
Ghana vs. Panama: Second half draw?	Jun 18	$570	+$430	+75%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	Jun 18	$1,610	+$390	+24%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 18	$1,593	+$356	+22%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$500	+$500	+100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$510	+$20	+4%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$173	+$351	+203%
Spread: Panama (-4.5)	Jun 18	$7	$0	+0%
Spread: Ghana (-4.5)	Jun 18	$103	$0	+0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$399	$0	-0%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$10	+$59	+613%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama?	Jun 18	$1,027	+$25	+2%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama?	Jun 18	$4,160	+$58	+1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$440	+$10	+2%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$900	+$10	+1%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$450	−$316	-70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY No	77¢	$5	0m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY No	77¢	$138	0m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5	BUY Under	10¢	$1	1m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5	BUY Under	10¢	$0	1m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5	BUY Under	10¢	$0	1m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5	BUY Under	10¢	$56	2m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	66¢	$16	2m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5	BUY Under	10¢	$16	2m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY No	77¢	$33	2m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	19¢	$20	3m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	19¢	$2	3m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	19¢	$42	3m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	52¢	$6	4m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	87¢	$1	4m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	87¢	$4	4m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY No	77¢	$77	4m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	87¢	$6	4m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	52¢	$52	4m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	52¢	$5	6m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	19¢	$40	6m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	87¢	$29	8m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	38¢	$2	9m
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	72¢	$352	10m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	SELL Under	53¢	$530	10m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	19¢	$2	11m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	75¢	$2	12m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	75¢	$8	12m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	75¢	$1	12m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	75¢	$57	12m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	75¢	$332	12m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,307.62 · official $65,280.41 (match) · 3500 history records