Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33be…adc8 world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,047 (+71%) realized +$2,183 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$2,090
14 days+$2,035
30 days+$2,035
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$123
world 41% +$2,127
crypto 7% −$6
sports 4% −$102
politics 4% −$7
economics 1% −$26
tech 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -39.6% -45.3% 31% 31% +175.7%
≤30d 39 -42.9% -48.3% 28% 28% +154.7%
≤90d 39 -42.9% -48.3% 28% 28% +154.7%
all 39 -42.9% -48.3% 28% 28% +154.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 28% +154.7%
10% -53.3% 23% +130.3%
15% -57.8% 13% +108.1%
20% -61.9% 5% +87.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +182% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +182% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$6 · ×31.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.56 per $1 lost it wins $12.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,362
Realized+$2,183
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions41
Markets (closed)39 / 80
History coverage14d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 27¢ 88¢ $97 $323 +$226 (+232%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $158 $186 +$28 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $145 $166 +$21 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $146 $124 −$22 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $51 $70 +$19 (+38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $89 $58 −$31 (-35%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-9%)
GTA VI released before November 2026? Yes 42¢ 11¢ $132 $35 −$97 (-74%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $44 $34 −$10 (-23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $46 $33 −$13 (-28%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 8¢ $117 $29 −$88 (-75%)
Elon Bull Run Parlay Yes 9¢ 12¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+45%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 88¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 55¢ 36¢ $28 $18 −$9 (-34%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $48 $15 −$33 (-69%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $10 −$20 (-65%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 56¢ 62¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No 66¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-63%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $76 $2 −$74 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 18 $102 −$7 -7%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 18 $103 −$5 -5%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $521 +$2,125 +408%
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Sydney Sweeney attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Chris Rock attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Lady Gaga attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Will Drake attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Jimmy Fallon attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Will Selena Gomez attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Hasbulla attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Anne Hathaway attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Larry David attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bad Bunny attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Will Alicia Keys attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jon Stewart attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 14 $39 +$16 +42%
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $29 +$7 +24%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 +$4 +46%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $37 +$36 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$4 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $23 +$10 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$13 -31%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $29 −$28 -95%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $8 $0 -2%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $8 1h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $96 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $98 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $103 1h
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $43 1h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $102 1h
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 1h
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $152 1h
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 2h
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $63 2h
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $4 3h
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? BUY No 64¢ $7 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $17 4h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 89¢ $13 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 7h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 78¢ $12 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $22 29h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 30h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $6 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $60 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,646 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 56¢ $4 2d
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,361.63 · official $1,361.33 (match) · 186 history records