Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33bf…8b66 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 23% −$1
politics 14% $0
culture 7% $0
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 16 -8.2% -17.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -8.2% -17.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 49 -4.2% -13.3% 22% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage280d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 +$3 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $39 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -4%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -31%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $1 $0 -40%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 24 $7 $0 -6%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 23 $1 $0 -11%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 22 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 16 $19 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 16 $31 −$1 -3%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 12 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $26 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $13 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $13 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $16 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $16 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $16 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.63 · official $34.60 (match) · 172 history records