Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
33 0x33bf…c1da other 10 markets active 4d ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-11%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$6
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -36.5% -42.5% 29% 29% -35.6%
all 10 +3.2% -6.6% 30% 30% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 30% -19.3%
10% -15.6% 30% -27.0%
15% -23.7% 30% -34.1%
20% -31.2% 30% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage91d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $8 +$13 +165%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $6 +$29 +488%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 44d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 65d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 65d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 66d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 66d
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 92d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 94d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 94d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records