Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:47:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33c2…0cd3 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$117 (-40%) realized −$77 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$141
sports 19% +$3
crypto 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 36% -57.0%
≤30d 11 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 36% -57.0%
≤90d 11 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 36% -57.0%
all 11 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 36% -57.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 36% -57.0%
10% -31.2% 36% -61.1%
15% -37.9% 36% -64.8%
20% -44.0% 27% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$47 -99%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +116%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$18 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 23¢ $20 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $47 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $24 21h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $7 30h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $7 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 31h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 80¢ $15 31h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $10 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 33h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 33h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $4 33h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $38 41h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $28 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.97 · official $46.97 (match) · 25 history records