Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x33c3…09db sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$465 (+34%) realized +$465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$401
sports 43% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.7% -7.1% 83% 67% +5.2%
≤30d 6 +2.7% -7.1% 83% 67% +5.2%
≤90d 7 +5.0% -5.0% 86% 71% +6.2%
all 8 +17.8% +6.6% 88% 75% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 75% +23.1%
10% -3.6% 38% +11.3%
15% -12.9% 12% +0.6%
20% -21.5% 12% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$30 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.6 per $1 lost it wins $17.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage119d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $101 +$35 +35%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $100 +$18 +18%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $121 +$39 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $143 +$14 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $101 +$21 +21%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $499 +$93 +19%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $286 +$308 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $121 25h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 31h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $157 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $143 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 2d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $592 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $499 81d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $286 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.07 · official $135.07 (match) · 14 history records