Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33c5…c6dc
other · 44 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$54 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$49
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions38
Markets (closed)6 / 44
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 38 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$47
other 39% −$7
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-69.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -66.1% -69.3% 33% 0% -83.8%
≤90d 6 -66.1% -69.3% 33% 0% -83.8%
all 6 -66.1% -69.3% 33% 0% -83.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.3% 0% -83.8%
10% -72.2% 0% -85.4%
15% -74.9% 0% -86.8%
20% -77.4% 0% -88.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.06 · official $49.06 (match) · 51 history records