Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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33 0x33c9…6f9a sports 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,283 (+3%) realized +$18,746 · open +$537
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%161W / 391L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,130per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Fees−$6,660est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$21,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$5,421
other 15% +$11,291
politics 1% −$321
crypto 0% −$1,107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -88.2% -89.3% 6% 6% -83.4%
≤30d 375 -65.4% -68.7% 18% 17% -57.2%
≤90d 552 -48.7% -53.6% 29% 28% -41.6%
all 552 -48.7% -53.6% 29% 28% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.6% 28% -41.6%
10% -58.0% 24% -47.2%
15% ← realistic here -62.1% 19% -52.3%
20% -65.8% 15% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$2,148) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,206 vs −$1,343 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$21,342
Realized+$18,746
Unrealized+$537
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses161 / 391
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$6,660
Open positions9
Markets (closed)552 / 296
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$2,130
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $6,088 $6,940 +$852 (+14%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $4,680 $4,842 +$162 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 87¢ $3,531 $3,593 +$61 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $3,320 $3,180 −$140 (-4%)
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Nuno Borges 61¢ 60¢ $2,401 $2,383 −$18 (-1%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $607 $265 −$342 (-56%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $170 $130 −$40 (-23%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Juan Manuel Cerundolo 48¢ 48¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Pablo Llamas Ruiz 57¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 375 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15? Jun 24 $648 −$648 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Jun 24 $1,414 −$1,414 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Zachary Svajda Jun 24 $3,289 −$3,289 -100%
Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils Jun 24 $740 −$740 -100%
Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5 Jun 24 $780 −$780 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Tallon Griekspoor Jun 24 $619 −$619 -100%
Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5 Jun 24 $520 −$520 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 24 $510 −$510 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 24 $510 −$510 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Marcos Giron vs Casper Ruud Jun 24 $1,429 −$538 -38%
Dallas Open: Adam Walton vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 24 $1,846 −$1,846 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Adam Walton vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 24 $1,367 −$1,367 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? Jun 24 $630 −$630 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov Jun 24 $946 −$946 -100%
Mexican Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Coleman Wong Jun 24 $708 −$708 -100%
New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $765 −$765 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Jun 24 $741 −$741 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Jun 24 $528 −$528 -100%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Arthur Gea vs Patrick Kypson Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Coleman Wong vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 24 $1,306 −$1,306 -100%
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Roberto Carballe Jun 24 $603 −$603 -100%
Miami Open: Arthur Cazaux vs Tomas Barrios Jun 24 $4,550 −$4,550 -100%
Miami Open: Rafael Jodar vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 24 $114 −$114 -100%
Miami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Nuno Borges Jun 24 $920 −$920 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 24 $480 −$480 -100%
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Ugo Humbert Jun 24 $925 −$925 -100%
Miami Open: Moise Kouame vs Zachary Svajda Jun 24 $7,726 −$7,726 -100%
Argentina Open, Qualification: Daniel Galan vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $6,521 −$6,521 -100%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Jun 24 $1,710 −$1,710 -100%
Mexican Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $4,205 −$4,205 -100%
Qatar Open: Valentin Royer vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 24 $363 −$363 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Wild Jun 24 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Com Jun 24 $705 −$705 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-10.5) Jun 24 $467 −$467 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 24 $3,004 −$3,004 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegu Jun 24 $243 −$243 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 24 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 24 $840 −$840 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Jun 24 $518 −$518 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rinky Hijik Jun 24 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Marcos Giron Jun 24 $3,558 −$3,558 -100%
Magic vs. Bucks Jun 24 $540 −$540 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jun 24 $135 −$135 -100%
Miami Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 24 $157 −$157 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac Jun 24 $2,425 −$2,425 -100%
Hornets vs. Kings Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Jun 24 $2,357 −$2,186 -93%
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Jun 24 $644 −$644 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 48¢ $2 5m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 57¢ $1 31m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 48¢ $5 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 61¢ $2,300 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 60¢ $3 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 60¢ $8 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 60¢ $3 3h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 60¢ $8 4h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 60¢ $3 5h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 60¢ $102 6h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 88¢ $1,325 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Roman Safiullin 83¢ $998 7h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 60¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 35¢ $1,364 7h
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 83¢ $1,668 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,541 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $1,274 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $3,337 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,178 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,037 39h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $653 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,473 39h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $1,093 39h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $2,102 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $5,064 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $250 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $126 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $890 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $919 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,341.58 · official $21,412.05 (match) · 3500 history records