Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
33 0x33ca…3f6b crypto 715 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$250 (-12%) realized −$329 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%233W / 470L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$364
sports 15% +$13
other 4% +$22
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +49.4% +35.2% 72% 69% +37.1%
≤30d 73 +16.9% +5.8% 59% 58% +10.3%
≤90d 695 -14.3% -22.4% 32% 31% -25.3%
all 703 -13.1% -21.4% 33% 32% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 32% -23.9%
10% -28.9% 31% -31.2%
15% -35.8% 30% -37.9%
20% -42.1% 28% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses233 / 470
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)703 / 715
History coverage94d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-14? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+127%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? Yes 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Over 42¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-08? Yes 55¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Spurs 50¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Over 54¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 42¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) FK Bodø/Glimt 37¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Wild vs. Avalanche Wild 37¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 32¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 57¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 53¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Stabaek IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +140%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$4 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$3 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 +$5 +158%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 +$5 +152%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +93%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $3 +$2 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $3 +$4 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +93%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $3 +$2 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $3 +$2 +79%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $3 +$2 +62%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +57%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $3 +$3 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 25¢ $2 1h
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 8h
Will Stabaek IF win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 8h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $5 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $5 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $5 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 53¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 39¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $3 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 43¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $3 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 50¢ $3 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 57¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.51 · official $58.51 (match) · 1684 history records