Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33cc…22eb other 275 markets active 2h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-8%) realized −$81 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%151W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$96
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$14
politics 8% −$82
crypto 1% +$7
world 0% −$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 60% +13.3%
≤30d 94 -9.6% -18.2% 60% 59% -10.5%
≤90d 94 -9.6% -18.2% 60% 59% -10.5%
all 273 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 55% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 55% -18.4%
10% -24.4% 48% -26.2%
15% -31.7% 37% -33.3%
20% -38.4% 29% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses151 / 122
Open positions2
Markets (closed)273 / 275
History coverage310d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 +$20 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $93 +$119 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$7 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 +$5 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +162%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $212 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.55 · official $47.55 (match) · 473 history records