Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33d2…9ac2 sports 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-2%) realized −$167 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%65W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days−$36
14 days−$289
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$546
other 44% +$112
world 5% +$154
crypto 4% +$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -8.1% -16.9% 54% 39% -10.6%
≤30d 119 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 44% -13.9%
≤90d 119 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 44% -13.9%
all 119 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 44% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 44% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 39% -22.2%
15% -30.3% 29% -29.7%
20% -37.1% 26% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$43 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses65 / 54
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions13
Markets (closed)119 / 132
History coverage18d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $141 $124 −$17 (-12%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 94¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 34¢ 40¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $282 +$5 +2%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$6 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $173 +$105 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $118 +$125 +106%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $98 −$10 -11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $32 +$1 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $32 +$32 +101%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 +$5 +75%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $234 −$231 -98%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 −$9 -83%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $168 +$84 +50%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$9 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $112 +$14 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $220 +$152 +69%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $4 +$5 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $60 −$15 -25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $59 +$9 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$77 -73%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +86%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 +$1 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $72 −$71 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $66 +$273 +412%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $6 +$5 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $6 +$6 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 23m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 24m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $2 25m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 29m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 30m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $21 36m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $3 36m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $3 38m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $21 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $16 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $6 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.05 · official $381.07 (match) · 755 history records