Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33d3…bf38 sports 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$8,309 (+1%) realized +$8,319 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%150W / 82L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,007per market
Trades / day76.1pace
Fees−$7,320est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 41% -18.2%
≤30d 207 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 51% -15.3%
≤90d 232 +10.8% +0.3% 65% 55% -9.5%
all 232 +10.8% +0.3% 65% 55% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 55% -9.5%
10% -9.3% 44% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -18.1% 34% -26.1%
20% -26.1% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$3,620) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,283 vs −$2,347 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,383
Realized+$8,319
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses150 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$7,320
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3,007
Trades / day76.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 67¢ 66¢ $1,394 $1,383 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9,728 −$1,819 -19%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $4,359 +$2,944 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $45 +$97 +216%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 +$12 +42%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 13 $332 −$175 -53%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,652 −$1,028 -28%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $293 −$202 -69%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $734 −$484 -66%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,387 −$1,240 -89%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,811 −$566 -31%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $952 −$952 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 13 $1,189 −$1,189 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,021 −$3,021 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $32 +$1 +3%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,373 −$3,373 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4,589 −$4,589 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $845 −$845 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19,087 +$2,890 +15%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,174 −$6,174 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,859 −$2,859 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,715 +$571 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,936 −$5,936 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $18,690 −$18,690 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $19,673 −$19,673 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20,860 +$3,615 +17%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,159 −$709 -33%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,657 −$2,457 -67%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $1,109 +$391 +35%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,763 +$427 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $19,067 +$1,563 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $17,145 +$2,506 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $11,648 +$5,504 +47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $24,471 +$6,279 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18,054 +$6,296 +35%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9,619 +$8,459 +88%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,055 +$821 +40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4,341 +$738 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,122 +$1,174 +38%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,972 +$64 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,120 −$117 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6,070 +$4,819 +79%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $99 −$97 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ Jun 10 $12 +$115 +932%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $97 −$95 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $2,307 +$1,169 +51%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,766 +$19 +1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,811 +$2,098 +116%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1,527 −$874 -57%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $7,646 +$3,503 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $7 0m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $183 0m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $1,218 0m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $4,818 35m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $54 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $2 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $4 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $80 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $7 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $2 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $6 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $1 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $6 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $10 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $41 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $48 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $7 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $102 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $3 45m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $1 45m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $5 45m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $33 46m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $116 46m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $57 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $55 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $99 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $20 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $10 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $99 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $33 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,383.48 · official $1,549.91 · 2774 history records