Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33d4…c074
sports · 194 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$84 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$95 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$185
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses97 / 81
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions16
Markets (closed)178 / 194
History coverage119d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 16 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days−$32
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 50¢ 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Atlanta Braves 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hornets Knicks 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
76ers vs. Hornets Hornets 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago White Sox 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kiwoom Heroes Doosan Bears 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $20 +$16 +80%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 05 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De May 31 $20 −$1 -3%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova May 31 $20 $0 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 31 $10 +$2 +17%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 31 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $20 +$12 +57%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 31 $20 +$12 +58%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 31 $41 −$6 -15%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $10 +$8 +83%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $10 +$8 +83%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $10 +$13 +129%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 27 $10 +$13 +129%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $20 +$21 +101%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $20 +$24 +119%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Lotte Giants May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% +$82
world 5% −$7
tech 3% $0
other 2% +$3
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 98¢ $10 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 93¢ $10 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 98¢ $20 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $10 7d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros BUY Athletics 51¢ $10 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $10 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $10 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $10 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $10 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $10 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $10 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $10 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 55¢ $20 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $30 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $20 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De BUY Luisina Giovannini 50¢ $10 17d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova BUY Anastasia Tikhonova 50¢ $10 17d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 60¢ $10 17d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres BUY Philadelphia Phillies 81¢ $10 17d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 85¢ $10 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 6¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +64.8% +49.1% 100% 75% +44.4%
≤30d 85 -3.9% -13.0% 53% 44% -9.0%
≤90d 168 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 46% -7.2%
all 178 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 47% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 47% -6.0%
10% -19.3% 47% -15.0%
15% -27.1% 42% -23.2%
20% -34.2% 42% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.78 · official $184.78 (match) · 404 history records