Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33d5…b25a crypto 720 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$188 (+0%) realized +$304 · open −$116
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate89%635W / 77L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$1
14 days−$22
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$304
weather 13% −$117
sports 13% −$64
other 3% −$12
finance 2% +$14
world 1% −$2
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.1% -14.2% 88% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 51 -10.9% -19.4% 82% 12% -6.6%
≤90d 712 -2.7% -12.0% 89% 10% -9.0%
all 712 -2.7% -12.0% 89% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 10% -9.0%
10% -20.4% 4% -17.7%
15% -28.1% 2% -25.6%
20% -35.1% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$4,770
Realized+$304
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses635 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)712 / 720
History coverage107d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $950 $941 −$9 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 96¢ 93¢ $930 $903 −$27 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 97¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 94¢ 84¢ $600 $537 −$63 (-10%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $456 $461 +$5 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 97¢ 93¢ $450 $434 −$16 (-4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 20 $802 +$17 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$8 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 03 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $50 +$5 +11%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $1,048 +$29 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $1,176 +$89 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $983 +$42 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $640 +$53 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $945 +$72 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $10 +$1 +5%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $50 +$1 +3%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $60 +$2 +3%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ameri May 28 $10 +$1 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $60 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $25 −$4 -18%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $20 +$1 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $90 +$13 +14%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $11 +$1 +6%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $11 $0 +3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $10 +$1 +8%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 22 $25 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $50 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $80 $0 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 93¢ $201 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $321 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $819 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 7h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 99¢ $20 30h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 5d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $20 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 93¢ $20 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $145 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $201 12d
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) BUY HANJIN BRION 69¢ $10 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $300 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $300 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 96¢ $100 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $301 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 97¢ $301 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $301 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $301 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,770.26 · official $4,769.75 (match) · 2348 history records