Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
33 0x33d7…7e11 crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$22 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%32W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$107
other 23% −$106
sports 12% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +23.4% +11.6% 49% 46% +6.5%
≤30d 65 +23.4% +11.6% 49% 46% +6.5%
≤90d 65 +23.4% +11.6% 49% 46% +6.5%
all 65 +23.4% +11.6% 49% 46% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 46% +6.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 38% -3.7%
15% -8.8% 32% -13.0%
20% -17.7% 25% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses32 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$104 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$13 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$28 +863%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$13 +251%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$9 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $168 −$104 -62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$40 +756%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $13 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $23 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $22 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $36 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.54 · official $53.05 (match) · 227 history records