Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33d9…3323 sports 12 markets active 1d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-54%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$18
other 36% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -59.7% -63.5% 17% 17% -60.3%
≤30d 12 -59.7% -63.5% 17% 17% -60.3%
≤90d 12 -59.7% -63.5% 17% 17% -60.3%
all 12 -59.7% -63.5% 17% 17% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.5% 17% -60.3%
10% -67.0% 8% -64.1%
15% -70.2% 8% -67.6%
20% -73.1% 8% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 25h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 38h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 38h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 38h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records