Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33d9…c9f6 crypto 873 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,059 (-9%) realized −$4,059 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%376W / 497L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$435
7 days+$659
14 days+$179
30 days−$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$3,792
world 17% −$1,138
sports 1% −$171
politics 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -8.1% -16.8% 42% 36% +19.7%
≤30d 122 -3.0% -12.3% 47% 43% -17.4%
≤90d 671 -39.3% -45.0% 31% 27% -40.7%
all 873 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 39% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 39% -19.9%
10% -25.4% 36% -27.6%
15% -32.6% 33% -34.6%
20% -39.2% 31% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$43 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,059
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses376 / 497
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)873 / 873
History coverage163d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 873 Trades
no open positions (109 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$70 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $92 +$30 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $66 +$29 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $84 −$69 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $463 −$311 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -73%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$13 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$14 -86%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$33 -96%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $226 +$896 +396%
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $367 −$218 -59%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $145 +$452 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$20 +186%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $403 +$47 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$14 -86%
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 9? Jun 09 $246 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $62 +$56 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $29 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $84 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 17¢ $151 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 49¢ $463 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $7 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2088 history records