Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33dc…7386 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-6%) realized −$35 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$24
crypto 14% −$100
sports 14% +$72
world 12% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% -17.0%
≤30d 5 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% -17.0%
≤90d 5 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% -17.0%
all 5 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 40% -17.0%
10% -36.6% 40% -24.9%
15% -42.7% 40% -32.2%
20% -48.3% 20% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$83 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Over 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$74 +145%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $300 +$126 +42%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 13¢ $23 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 4h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $427 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $300 26h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.79 · official $98.69 (match) · 12 history records