Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33dc…bb81
world · 137 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
−$19,484 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17,329 · open −$2,661
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$89,712
Realized−$17,329
Unrealized−$2,661
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses90 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions10
Markets (closed)127 / 137
History coverage135d
Avg bet$5,806
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 10 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,419
30 days−$4,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $35,600 $39,420 +$3,820 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $11,014 $12,080 +$1,066 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $8,189 $9,209 +$1,020 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 95¢ 92¢ $9,500 $9,155 −$345 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $9,000 $7,300 −$1,700 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 45¢ 18¢ $11,268 $4,680 −$6,587 (-58%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $2,280 $2,340 +$60 (+3%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 65¢ 58¢ $2,233 $2,010 −$224 (-10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,689 $1,781 +$92 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $1,600 $1,737 +$137 (+9%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $1,480 $0 −$1,480 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 01 $930 +$13 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $8,700 +$1,300 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $10,401 +$106 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $11,097 +$1,829 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $8,400 −$8,251 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2,810 −$2,784 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 23 $684 −$676 -99%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 22 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $680 +$120 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 22 $585 −$7 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? May 19 $7,633 +$120 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? May 18 $4,038 +$12 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $16,995 +$2,979 +18%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $11,138 +$2,145 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 10 $814 +$18 +2%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 07 $2,913 +$42 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $1,296 −$209 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 06 $525 −$207 -39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 06 $2,010 −$269 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $413 +$145 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $5,565 +$166 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $34,898 +$2,381 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $49,519 −$2,129 -4%
US recession by end of 2026? Apr 25 $10,776 −$342 -3%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 25 $22,096 −$4,838 -22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 25 $33,998 +$2,102 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 24 $22,796 −$1,251 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $4,174 +$536 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $6,984 +$92 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 22 $203 −$14 -7%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Apr 16 $127 +$107 +84%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 16 $1,399 +$12 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Apr 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 14 $15,443 +$64 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $301 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Apr 13 $421 +$22 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 12 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 12 $10,905 +$30 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $17,292 −$7,658 -44%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 11 $6 $0 +8%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 10 $40 +$1 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 10 $2,550 +$120 +5%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Apr 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Apr 10 $25 −$25 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 10 $5,972 −$5,972 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 10 $19,991 −$9,189 -46%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 10 $30,502 −$30,502 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $14,430 −$9 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Apr 09 $300 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% −$40,886
finance 14% −$4,365
other 10% +$5,408
politics 7% +$272
economics 4% +$18,827
sports 1% +$759
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $914 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $95 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $47 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -21.9% -29.4% 64% 36% -14.4%
≤90d 76 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 22% -15.1%
all 127 +4.0% -5.9% 71% 28% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 28% -11.8%
10% -14.9% 14% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.1% 9% -28.0%
20% -30.7% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89,711.80 · official $90,512.05 (match) · 3500 history records