Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
33 0x33dc…ac64 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,651 (+29%) realized +$5,648 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%18W / 9L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$270
14 days+$701
30 days+$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$5,474
other 44% +$113
tech 7% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.6% +20.0% 100% 100% +14.9%
≤30d 9 -8.1% -16.8% 56% 56% +25.5%
≤90d 27 +15.8% +4.8% 67% 67% +32.4%
all 27 +15.8% +4.8% 67% 67% +32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 67% +32.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 63% +19.7%
15% -14.4% 48% +8.1%
20% -22.8% 44% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
51.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$227 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$2,516
Realized+$5,648
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses18 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions10
Markets (closed)27 / 37
History coverage37d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $446 $438 −$8 (-2%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? No 71¢ 72¢ $382 $386 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? No 90¢ 91¢ $361 $363 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 97¢ $277 $277 +$0 (+0%)
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $244 $245 +$1 (+0%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $139 $164 +$25 (+18%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? No 92¢ 93¢ $161 $163 +$2 (+1%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? No 85¢ 84¢ $163 $162 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 10¢ $102 $93 −$9 (-9%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $51 $61 +$10 (+19%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes $33 $45 +$11 (+34%)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes $19 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Yes $12 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $333 +$36 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $232 +$65 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $286 +$65 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $152 +$105 +69%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $203 −$197 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $126 −$122 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $54 −$52 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $418 +$824 +197%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 14 $2,439 +$2,564 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $507 +$493 +97%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 13 $32 +$47 +146%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 13 $70 +$42 +60%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $1,616 +$1,183 +73%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $336 +$258 +77%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $1,570 +$430 +27%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 13 $559 +$319 +57%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $438 +$590 +135%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 May 13 $152 +$63 +42%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score May 13 $584 +$393 +67%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 May 13 $29 +$23 +79%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $880 −$872 -99%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 May 13 $88 −$86 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $487 −$480 -98%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 13 $7 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $23 40m
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $23 40m
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $23 41m
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $23 41m
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 84¢ $21 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 84¢ $15 2h
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 84¢ $21 2h
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 84¢ $21 3h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $23 3h
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 84¢ $21 3h
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 84¢ $21 3h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $23 3h
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 84¢ $21 3h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $23 6h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $23 6h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $23 6h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $23 9h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $23 22h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $24 30h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $15 31h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $24 33h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 42h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 42h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $12 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $12 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,515.51 · official $2,515.75 (match) · 1981 history records