Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
33 0x33dc…43f6 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$131 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$501
7 days+$1,521
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$1,477
other 30% +$1,283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.1% -15.0% 62% 62% +23.4%
≤30d 38 -23.4% -30.7% 42% 42% -10.1%
≤90d 38 -23.4% -30.7% 42% 42% -10.1%
all 38 -23.4% -30.7% 42% 42% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 42% -10.1%
10% -37.3% 39% -18.7%
15% -43.4% 39% -26.6%
20% -48.9% 32% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -36% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$183 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage11d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 41¢ 16¢ $196 $74 −$122 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $124 +$48 +39%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $850 +$586 +69%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To Jun 22 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $250 +$118 +47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $990 +$395 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,501 +$844 +56%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $603 −$150 -25%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $401 −$401 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $602 +$96 +16%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $201 +$182 +91%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $201 −$201 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $201 −$201 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $401 −$401 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $401 +$208 +52%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $201 +$170 +85%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $201 +$239 +119%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $201 +$180 +90%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $201 +$173 +86%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $201 +$238 +119%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $201 +$238 +119%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $100 −$48 -48%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $50 +$46 +92%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $301 +$198 +66%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $301 −$301 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 41¢ $200 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 61¢ $343 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $400 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $172 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $124 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $500 25h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY No 57¢ $33 26h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY No 57¢ $132 26h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY No 57¢ $60 28h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY No 57¢ $9 28h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY No 57¢ $17 29h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $350 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $250 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,385 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $990 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $158 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.95 · official $78.72 · 110 history records