Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
33 0x33e3…466c other 5 markets active 4h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$532 (-2%) realized −$483 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,550per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$10,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,102
7 days−$1,239
14 days−$1,239
30 days−$1,238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,287
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 50% -18.7%
≤30d 4 +15.2% +4.2% 50% 50% -18.7%
≤90d 4 +15.2% +4.2% 50% 50% -18.7%
all 4 +15.2% +4.2% 50% 50% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 50% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 50% -26.5%
15% -14.9% 25% -33.6%
20% -23.2% 25% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$552 vs −$1,171 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$10,166
Realized−$483
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage27d
Avg bet$4,550
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10,215 $10,166 −$49 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $3,443 +$1,102 +32%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $8,763 −$2,341 -27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5,998 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4,544 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $4,545 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $3,443 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $3,442 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $2,980 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 17d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $163 26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8,590 27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,165.98 · official $10,165.98 (match) · 41 history records