Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
33 0x33e9…36a2 crypto 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$145 (-13%) realized −$141 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$181
crypto 33% −$44
sports 15% +$72
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +62.2% +46.8% 36% 36% +70.6%
≤30d 11 +62.2% +46.8% 36% 36% +70.6%
≤90d 31 +9.1% -1.2% 35% 35% +41.9%
all 93 -9.6% -18.2% 34% 34% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 34% -23.3%
10% -26.0% 31% -30.7%
15% -33.2% 30% -37.4%
20% -39.7% 29% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 61
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage124d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$11 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$22 +365%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 +$64 +233%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$14 +442%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 04 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 04 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$17 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 02 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 02 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 02 $1 +$1 +139%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? Mar 28 $131 +$72 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 07 $1 +$3 +294%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 05 $1 +$4 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 04 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $60 +$81 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$40 +809%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 17h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 26h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.28 · official $80.29 (match) · 182 history records