Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

33 0x33ea…68d0 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$58 (+5%) realized +$60 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$192per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-31.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-24.2%	-31.4%	40%	40%	-2.7%
≤30d	5	-24.2%	-31.4%	40%	40%	-2.7%
≤90d	5	-24.2%	-31.4%	40%	40%	-2.7%
all	5	-24.2%	-31.4%	40%	40%	-2.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.4%	40%	-2.7%
10%	-38.0%	20%	-12.0%
15%	-44.0%	20%	-20.5%
20%	-49.5%	20%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$83 vs −$29 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$98

Realized+$60

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$192

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$203	−$47	-23%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$51	+$44	+86%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$756	+$122	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	39¢	$156	5m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	6m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	SELL Brazil	100¢	$94	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$203	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$343	3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	53¢	$51	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$273	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	78¢	$273	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$79	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$201	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	78¢	$263	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.33 · official $98.33 (match) · 14 history records