Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x33eb…0241 sports 380 markets active 1d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate68%257W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$23
14 days+$21
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$13
crypto 31% −$4
weather 20% −$19
other 13% +$15
world 2% −$1
finance 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +65.8% +50.0% 71% 71% +47.0%
≤30d 108 +15.6% +4.6% 51% 51% +8.6%
≤90d 380 +2.4% -7.3% 68% 38% -9.0%
all 380 +2.4% -7.3% 68% 38% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 38% -9.0%
10% -16.2% 29% -17.7%
15% -24.3% 24% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 21% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses257 / 123
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)380 / 380
History coverage87d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 380 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +786%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$3 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +63%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +45%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +72%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 28h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 52¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 731 history records