Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33eb…025a sports 277 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$578 (-3%) realized −$576 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate69%191W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$344
14 days−$254
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$463
crypto 15% +$21
other 8% −$196
world 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.6% -35.4% 67% 11% -29.9%
≤30d 126 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 37% -10.6%
≤90d 240 -10.2% -18.7% 67% 32% -13.1%
all 276 -6.1% -15.0% 69% 34% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 34% -12.8%
10% -23.1% 23% -21.1%
15% -30.6% 21% -28.8%
20% -37.4% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$576
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses191 / 85
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)276 / 277
History coverage106d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $167 $165 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $160 +$7 +4%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 20 $154 +$6 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $143 +$11 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $268 +$17 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $126 +$19 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $276 −$275 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $260 +$14 +5%
Spread: FF Jaro (-1.5) Jun 13 $249 +$13 +5%
Spread: Galway United FC (-2.5) Jun 12 $48 +$2 +3%
Helsingborgs IF vs. Landskrona BoIS: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $220 +$14 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $129 +$7 +5%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $217 +$8 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $230 +$9 +4%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $221 +$29 +13%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $211 +$9 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $191 +$21 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $103 +$5 +5%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 06 $150 +$15 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $111 +$14 +13%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $200 +$17 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $74 +$4 +5%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $170 +$11 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $89 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $130 +$12 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $95 +$6 +6%
Spread: Real Zaragoza (-1.5) May 31 $145 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 31 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 30 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 30 $4 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $83 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $84 12h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $80 25h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $80 36h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Morocco 96¢ $84 47h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Morocco 96¢ $70 2d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 93¢ $71 3d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 92¢ $72 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $140 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $138 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $130 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $126 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $276 6d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $260 7d
Spread: FF Jaro (-1.5) BUY HJK Helsinki 95¢ $249 8d
Spread: Galway United FC (-2.5) BUY Dundalk FC 97¢ $48 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $129 10d
Helsingborgs IF vs. Landskrona BoIS: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $220 10d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $189 11d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1 11d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $27 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 96¢ $230 12d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $221 13d
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $211 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 95¢ $103 15d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 15d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 15d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Peru 87¢ $1 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? BUY No 88¢ $111 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.00 · official $165.00 (match) · 574 history records