Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ec…4526 weather 1150 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-18%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate17%201W / 949L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$176
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.8% -30.1% 20% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 38 -37.2% -43.2% 34% 16% -26.7%
≤90d 1150 -48.9% -53.7% 17% 7% -21.6%
all 1150 -48.9% -53.7% 17% 7% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.7% 7% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -58.2% 5% -29.1%
15% -62.2% 5% -36.0%
20% -65.9% 4% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses201 / 949
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1150 / 1150
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1150 Trades
no open positions (245 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? Jun 26 $24 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? Jun 26 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? Jun 26 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 09 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 08 $2 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -21%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1? May 30 $5 −$4 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 1? May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 1? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 28? May 29 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 26? May 27 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26? May 27 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 25? May 26 $6 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 26 $0 +$1 +1900%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? May 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 26 $4 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 25? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $0 +$6 +4900%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 25? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? SELL No 64¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? BUY No 66¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? BUY No 66¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? SELL Yes 97¢ $32 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? SELL No 31¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 17d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? BUY No 78¢ $5 17d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 17d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 9? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records