Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ef…c498 other 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,266 (-7%) realized −$17,694 · open −$2,572
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate71%225W / 92L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$905per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$6,370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,411
7 days+$2,350
14 days+$3,685
30 days+$3,388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$17,185
sports 9% −$1,677
world 8% −$2,870
politics 4% +$2,031
tech 3% +$380
crypto 2% +$53
economics 0% −$314
finance 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +24.5% +12.6% 71% 38% -0.6%
≤30d 37 +15.8% +4.7% 73% 43% -0.9%
≤90d 105 +2.5% -7.2% 73% 35% -9.4%
all 317 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 32% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 32% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 23% -22.8%
15% -28.5% 17% -30.2%
20% -35.5% 12% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,215) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$447 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$6,370
Realized−$17,694
Unrealized−$2,572
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses225 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions14
Markets (closed)317 / 334
History coverage239d
Avg bet$905
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 46¢ $3,611 $1,967 −$1,644 (-46%)
Unit FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 86¢ 80¢ $1,577 $1,457 −$121 (-8%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $664 $670 +$5 (+1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 41¢ $971 $596 −$375 (-39%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? No 95¢ 90¢ $592 $564 −$28 (-5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $455 $500 +$45 (+10%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 87¢ 94¢ $235 $252 +$18 (+7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 76¢ $136 $152 +$16 (+12%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 48¢ 55¢ $89 $102 +$13 (+15%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 82¢ 42¢ $164 $84 −$80 (-49%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $27 $15 −$12 (-44%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ $86 $6 −$80 (-94%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 90¢ $317 $3 −$314 (-99%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes $17 $2 −$15 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2,062 +$4,819 +234%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran Jun 17 $256 +$685 +268%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will N Jun 17 $178 +$254 +142%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $380 +$10 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$123 +121%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,520 +$44 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $557 −$550 -99%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $1,225 +$25 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,081 −$2,155 -53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,649 −$1,638 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $234 −$231 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,384 +$2 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $212 +$88 +42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $128 +$98 +77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $467 +$533 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4,952 +$34 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $411 +$231 +56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,149 +$69 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,769 +$28 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,458 +$15 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,660 +$1,143 +69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $323 +$177 +55%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $2,822 −$587 -21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,319 +$154 +12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $343 +$157 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $199 −$195 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $229 −$225 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $215 −$213 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $378 +$12 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 29 $975 +$15 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 28 $140 +$6 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 25 $957 +$263 +28%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $104 +$50 +48%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $254 +$149 +59%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $182 +$118 +65%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $96 +$54 +57%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on May 14 $538 +$26 +5%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on May 14 $2,034 +$15 +1%
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day May 14 $2,217 +$61 +3%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on May 14 $552 +$62 +11%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day May 14 $192 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? May 11 $1,485 +$278 +19%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 06 $16 +$6 +39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $1,150 −$864 -75%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $182 −$180 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $247 −$246 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $79 +$21 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,002 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 54¢ $203 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $137 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $456 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 78¢ $390 17h
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 20h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 76¢ $380 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 44¢ $102 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will N BUY 41¢ $178 29h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,564 31h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,520 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran BUY 27¢ $256 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $557 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1,926 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $98 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $99 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $135 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,800 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $765 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,281 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $785 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $186 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,200 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $95 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,198 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $129 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,369.88 · official $6,574.88 · 2788 history records