Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33f0…b67a
world · 65 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage532d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $92 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $6 +$2 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $39 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $66 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $28 +$4 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $63 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $64 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $37 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $69 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $7 $0 -2%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the Mar 28 $2 $0 +29%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$9
politics 18% −$1
other 13% +$1
sports 13% −$14
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 2% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $34 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $15 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $46 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $26 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $42 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 33h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $33 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $43 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 27 +2.4% -7.4% 41% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 61 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 5% -9.2%
all 64 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records