Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

33 0x33f0…2c8b other 17 markets active 10d ago coverage 233d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$12 (-38%) realized −$12 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$2

30 days−$2

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-40.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	-22.4%	-29.8%	50%	25%	-43.8%
≤90d	4	-22.4%	-29.8%	50%	25%	-43.8%
all	16	-33.8%	-40.1%	44%	31%	-45.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.1%	31%	-45.8%
10%	-45.8%	19%	-51.0%
15%	-51.1%	12%	-55.7%
20%	-55.9%	6%	-60.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% too few recent

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -55% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$12

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage233d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	87¢	86¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Jun 16	$1	$0	-12%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?	Jun 16	$1	$0	+5%
Bank of England rate cut in 2025?	Jun 16	$1	$0	+18%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-09?	Nov 09	$1	−$1	-100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 7?	Nov 08	$4	+$3	+61%
Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?	Nov 07	$1	$0	+1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Nov 05	$3	+$1	+29%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec	Nov 04	$1	$0	-2%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?	Nov 04	$1	$0	+48%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Oct 29	$1	−$1	-100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Oct 28	$1	$0	+11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Oct 28	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October	Oct 26	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-26?	Oct 26	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?	Oct 26	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL No	84¢	$1	9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	9d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-09?	BUY Yes	60¢	$1	229d
Bank of England rate cut in 2025?	BUY Yes	85¢	$1	230d
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?	BUY Yes	95¢	$1	230d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the	BUY No	87¢	$1	230d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 7?	BUY Up	62¢	$1	231d
Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?	SELL No	97¢	$1	231d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 7?	BUY Up	62¢	$3	231d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	SELL Down	67¢	$3	233d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	BUY Down	52¢	$3	233d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec	SELL Yes	54¢	$1	233d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the	SELL No	83¢	$1	233d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on Dec	BUY Yes	55¢	$1	234d
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?	SELL Yes	64¢	$1	234d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	240d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	BUY Down	40¢	$1	241d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	BUY Down	40¢	$1	241d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	BUY Down	39¢	$1	241d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the	BUY No	80¢	$1	241d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	BUY Down	45¢	$1	241d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on October	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	242d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-26?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	242d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	BUY Up	90¢	$1	242d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-26?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	242d
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$1	242d
Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?	BUY No	95¢	$1	242d
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	242d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	94¢	$1	242d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 36 history records