Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33f1…1061 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%9W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2
other 29% −$1
politics 12% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 0% -9.2%
all 39 -0.6% -10.1% 23% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage301d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $36 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $6 +$1 +27%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $29 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on August 25? Aug 25 $5 −$1 -12%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 22 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $45 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $45 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $0 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.42 · official $40.42 (match) · 290 history records