Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33fa…8ad3 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$122 (+9%) realized +$85 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$46
politics 29% −$1
crypto 15% $0
sports 2% +$12
tech 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -25.2% -32.3% 43% 29% -1.9%
≤30d 28 -25.2% -32.3% 43% 29% -1.9%
≤90d 28 -25.2% -32.3% 43% 29% -1.9%
all 28 -25.2% -32.3% 43% 29% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 29% -1.9%
10% -38.8% 21% -11.3%
15% -44.7% 11% -19.8%
20% -50.1% 7% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$879
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)28 / 49
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? No 75¢ 62¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 38¢ $20 $50 +$30 (+150%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 18¢ 68¢ $8 $30 +$22 (+285%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 37¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 33¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 22 $102 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $44 +$13 +31%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 −$9 -45%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$34 +207%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$13 +131%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -48%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $28 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $110 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 14h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 30h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 30h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $105 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $20 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $32 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.48 · official $879.48 (match) · 97 history records