Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33fc…dc88 crypto 1383 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,945 (-14%) realized −$3,954 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%863W / 460L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day55.5pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$1,102
sports 27% −$295
other 11% −$250
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$22
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -7.2% -16.0% 61% 60% -15.1%
≤30d 919 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 56% -15.8%
≤90d 1323 -6.5% -15.4% 65% 53% -14.8%
all 1323 -6.5% -15.4% 65% 53% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 53% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 27% -23.0%
15% -30.9% 10% -30.4%
20% -37.7% 7% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized−$3,954
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses863 / 460
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions60
Markets (closed)1323 / 1383
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day55.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 1323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 66¢ 63¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 62¢ 62¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 56¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 55¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 43¢ 46¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$17 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$2 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$4 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$4 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$3 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$3 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $38 −$21 -55%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$5 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$11 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$13 -47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 17 $14 −$1 -6%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $13 −$1 -7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$3 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $16 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $16 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $17 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $17 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 25¢ $6 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $7 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $21 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $13 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $16 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $18 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 26h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 59¢ $15 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $25 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 29h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 17¢ $4 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $681.60 · official $681.61 (match) · 3500 history records