Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
33 0x33fe…da25 crypto 452 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,262 (+63%) realized +$2,262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%235W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +14.5% +3.6% 52% 41% +3.2%
≤30d 119 +14.5% +3.6% 52% 41% +3.2%
≤90d 354 +5.8% -4.3% 53% 48% -6.9%
all 452 +6.8% -3.4% 52% 48% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 48% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 44% -19.4%
15% -21.1% 42% -27.2%
20% -28.8% 34% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses235 / 217
Open positions0
Markets (closed)452 / 452
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 452 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $74 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$8 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$7 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $60 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$3 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +124%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$9 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$7 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records