trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 50% | 8% | -7.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 50% | 8% | -7.1% |
| all | 26 | -0.4% | -9.8% | 54% | 15% | -5.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.8% | 15% | -5.7% |
| 10% | -18.5% | 8% | -14.7% |
| 15% | -26.4% | 4% | -23.0% |
| 20% | -33.6% | 4% | -30.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $48 | $48 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $47 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 04 | $165 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 31 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 30 | $58 | +$4 | +8% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 30 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $9 | −$3 | -33% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 28 | $55 | +$12 | +22% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 28 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 19 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 16 | $71 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 16 | $12 | +$3 | +25% |
| Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? | Mar 15 | $75 | +$8 | +11% |
| UL Monroe vs. Louisiana | Mar 03 | $74 | $0 | +0% |
| Grambling State vs. Bethune-Cookman | Mar 03 | $76 | −$1 | -2% |
| VCU vs. Duquesne | Mar 03 | $84 | −$8 | -10% |
| West Virginia vs. Utah | Mar 03 | $84 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-25? | Mar 03 | $55 | +$29 | +54% |