Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3401…e099 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+3%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$16
sports 29% −$9
other 13% +$36
economics 6% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 8% -7.1%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 8% -7.1%
all 26 -0.4% -9.8% 54% 15% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 15% -5.7%
10% -18.5% 8% -14.7%
15% -26.4% 4% -23.0%
20% -33.6% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage480d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $165 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $58 +$4 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $9 −$3 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $55 +$12 +22%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 19 $2 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $71 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $12 +$3 +25%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 15 $75 +$8 +11%
UL Monroe vs. Louisiana Mar 03 $74 $0 +0%
Grambling State vs. Bethune-Cookman Mar 03 $76 −$1 -2%
VCU vs. Duquesne Mar 03 $84 −$8 -10%
West Virginia vs. Utah Mar 03 $84 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-25? Mar 03 $55 +$29 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $11 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $19 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $24 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $4 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $5 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $47 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $14 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $67 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $68 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.43 · official $48.02 (match) · 114 history records