trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $27,817 | +$1,012 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 05 | $10,050 | +$4,574 | +46% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 05 | $1,969 | +$656 | +33% |
| Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $28,584 | −$28,584 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $13,422 | +$11,408 | +85% |
| Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? | Jun 01 | $1,006 | −$1,006 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 31 | $2,508 | −$2,508 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 26 | $20,000 | +$8,646 | +43% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | May 25 | $3,549 | −$3,499 | -99% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 24 | $51 | −$3 | -6% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 23 | $3,500 | −$2,765 | -79% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | May 23 | $1,600 | −$1,577 | -99% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? | May 23 | $200 | −$15 | -8% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | May 23 | $1,000 | −$12 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 22 | $21 | −$1 | -7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 80% | 40% | +4.6% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -28.0% | -34.9% | 35% | 24% | -20.3% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -28.0% | -34.9% | 35% | 24% | -20.3% |
| all | 17 | -28.0% | -34.9% | 35% | 24% | -20.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -34.9% | 24% | -20.3% |
| 10% | -41.1% | 24% | -27.9% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -46.8% | 18% | -34.9% |
| 20% | -52.0% | 6% | -41.2% |